Nebraska City, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

725
FXUS63 KOAX 100946
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
446 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorms will continue through 8 to 9 am across
  the region. The threat for severe thunderstorms will diminish
  by sunrise, with damaging winds of 60-80 mph possible until
  then. Flash flooding will remain possible, with rain rates of
  2 to 4 inches per hour.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms, along with flash
  flooding is possible Sunday evening into early Monday. Areas
  near and south of a Dorchester to Nebraska City in Nebraska,
  and Red Oak in Iowa may be impacted.


- Temperatures will remain in the 80s for highs and 60s for lows
  through the end of the week, with temperatures rising into the
  90s by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Today through Sunday...

Remnants of a severe MCS that moved across the forecast area
overnight, currently is exiting southwest Iowa early this
morning. Once again the CWA experienced multiple reports of 60
to 80 mph winds, along with flash flooding. The threat of severe
weather is expected to exit the CWA by 5 am. Flooding and flash
flooding will remain possible, as rain and thunderstorms linger
until mid-morning. As such, extended the flood watch for areas
north of Fairbury NE to Clarinda IA until 12 pm.

The second flood watch for Nemaha, Pawnee and Richardson
Counties in Nebraska will continue until 10 am on Monday. A
surface stationary front will linger near the Iowa-Nebraska
line through the evening hours, meanwhile the more effective H8
front will extend from a leeside low that will develop as a
disturbance rounds the base of a H5 trough anchored to H5 low
moving along the U.S. Canadian border. Storms the develop to the
lee of the Rockies expected to follow a more pronounced theta-e
axis oriented across northern Kansas, extreme southeast Nebraska
into northwest Missouri furing the evening and overnight hours.
Uncertain about the severe threat, as impingement of the LLJ
likely will occur south of the forecast area. However, PWAT
remain in the 75-90 percentile for early August, thus expect
better rainfall efficiency. Cannot discount another round of
showers and storms Monday night into early Tuesday, as cyclonic
flow aloft remains across the area. Expect the effective
boundaries for convective focus will remain south and east of
the area in general, thus any storms will just clip southeast
portion of CWA.

Clouds, convective debris and northeast winds will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s today, falling into
the 60s overnight.

Monday will be a near repeat, though slightly warmer
temperatures will be possible along the Nebraska-South Dakota
border where less cloud cover is expected.

Tuesday through Saturday...

Medium range models indicating a quasi-stationary trough the
will remain across the central plains Sunday and Monday will
begin to move east, with upper level riding building into the
region. This will allow a break in precipitation. East to
northeast surface flow will keep temperatures in the 80s through
mid-week. By late in the week, the upper level ridge will be
center over Kansas and Nebraska which will allow temperatures to
climb back into the 90s. A shortwave moving into the Pacific
northwest will increase the potential for nocturnal convection
in the Friday into Saturday timeframe, though the aforementioned
ridge over the southern-central plains appears to channel the
energy and may keep better storm threat north of the area.

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

QLCS beginning to evolve across southern portion of the CWA just
before midnight. East-west oriented convection moving north-
northeast in two separate bands, arcing from KYJR to just west
of KLNK and KHJH to KBIE. Based on CAMs, the QLCS will further
evolve and grow upscale into larger MCS.

Used HRRR as the basis of timing of the MCS as it moves across
the southern portions of the CWA. Timing of storms into KLNK
between 07-08z, with HRRR wind gusts with convection in the
45-55kt range, so split the difference and included VRB25G50kt
for the KLNK TAF. Storms will reach the Omaha metro between
08-09z, with most intense storms looking to pass south of KOMA,
with KOFF and KPMV more likely to experience wind gusts 45-55kt.
Expect ceilings during the most intense storms to lower to
FL030-035, with scattered clouds in MVFR categories.

After the main line of storms passes to the east, non-severe
convection will longer for 1-2 hours, before gradually waning
between 12z-14z. Ceilings will gradually rise to FL050-060 by
14-16z.

Didn`t add much detail to the latter portion of TAF. There`s a
10-20 percent chance of another round of storms developing
around midnight Monday, with differences in location and timing
by the CAMS. Thus left mention out for now.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for NEZ066>068-078-088>090.
     Flood Watch through Monday morning for NEZ091>093.
IA...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fortin
AVIATION...Fortin